Intraurban Spatial Fluctuations in Crime by Season and the Temperate Sacramento Climate

Geographic and climatic modeling has garnered recent attention among criminologists, but few have combined these techniques to form a single model of crime. Among limited intraurban spatial-climatic models, each explores municipalities with wide-ranging seasonal variation. While not yet tested, there is reason to believe that climatically temperate cities would show little seasonal fluctuation in the spatial distribution of crime. Using Sacramento, California, as our spatial unit, we first explore monthly fluctuations in crime, followed by a test of spatial distribution in crime by month. We find no meaningful seasonal fluctuation in crime; raster density maps show no discernible seasonal fluctuation in the spatial distribution of crime; and spatial correlations reaffirm a lack of seasonal patterning. Our methodology and findings address the lack of intraurban modeling on climatically temperate municipalities and call for the requisite inclusion of a spatial component in all criminological research on climate, seasons, and weather.

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