Cointegration analysis on Guangxi foreign trade, investment, consumption and economic growth

Since the reform and opening-up, high economic growth in Guangxi has already become an irrefutable fact. And domestic consumption investment, the foreign trade is the main motive force of promoting Guangxi's economic growth. The article applies the cointegration theory and Granger causality test to analyze the relationship among them. Through the empirical analysis of consumption, investment, the foreign trade and GDP from 1987-2007, we established the cointegration models and error correction model between them. Then forecast the GDP from 2008 to 2012, we got better-forecast effect.