Graduate project

Correlation Analysis Between U.S. Unemployment Rate and Divorce Rate

This article uses 12 years of data from 42 states in the United States, using simple OLS estimates and panel fixed effects models were used respectively to try to study the effect of unemployment rate on divorce rate and other risk factors affecting divorce rate. The study found that the results in the panel model were consistent with the expectation that an increase in the unemployment rate would significantly reduce the increase in divorce behavior. This is because unemployment forces people to consider the cost of living in divorce and thus choose to reduce divorce behavior, which is consistent with the Amato’s study, but this relationship is not significant in this paper. At the same time, economic status is also an important factor to be considered when people divorce. GDP and AFDC can effectively alleviate divorce behavior, but this effect is not significant. The change of divorce rate mainly comes from the time effect. Finally, through comparison, it is found that the fixed effect model can better fit the data, but the model still has certain endogencity.